A two-layer statistical system that combines classical match modeling with modern machine learning to identify value bets across Europe's top football leagues.
The foundation is a bivariate Poisson model based on the Dixon-Coles (1997) framework. It estimates the expected goals for each team by computing attack and defense strength parameters from historical match results, weighted by recency.
A gradient-boosted decision tree (XGBoost) trained on 1,500+ historical match features refines the base model predictions. The ML layer captures non-linear patterns that Poisson misses: form streaks, fixture congestion, Elo momentum, and xG performance trends.
The V50 strategy targets low-odds, high-probability bets with positive expected value. Each pick must pass multiple filters before qualification.
V50 strategy backtested on 2023/24, 2024/25, and 2025/26 seasons. All seasons individually profitable.
Statistical analysis. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.